Forum:2014 Atlantic hurricane season
Only June 01 2014 00:00:00 until the Atlantic hurricane season starts... Future Start Two months until 2014. I'll make my predictions once 2013 is over with. Betting pools are here. Ryan1000 01:02, October 28, 2013 (UTC) : Now that the 2013 Atlantic season is done, I'll give out my pre-season predictions: 9-14 named storms, 2-6 hurricanes, and 0-3 majors. —'[[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] Talk • ' 00:40, December 17, 2013 (UTC) ::: HAHAHA, LOL HAPPY NEW YEAR LOL (you should see the Google Doodle LOL the 3 was out of breath) London and sydney fireworks was AWESOMEEEE Susanna Reid said it was meant to taste of strawberries XD ANYWAY... Lemme see... 14 named storms, 5 hurricanes, 3 majors. “i liek turtlez 02:22, January 1, 2014 (UTC) :::: Happy new year to you too! Yeah, that Google doodle looks pretty cool...in fact, it's gotta be one of the best doodles I've seen in a while. I'm still going to go with my above predictions, and I'll update them in March or April. It's also a good time to remind everyone to edit when you're at your best or you will do things like this, [[User:Steven09876 |'Steven']][[Message Wall:Steven09876 #top|'09876']] 20:00, January 1, 2014 (UTC) Here are my Atlantic basin predictions: 8''' tropical depressions, '''7 named storms, 3''' hurricanes, '''1 major hurricane, 17.50 named storm days, 4.50 hurricane days, 0.5 major hurricane days, and an ACE of 55 (give or take 10). AndrewTalk To Me 01:46, January 3, 2014 (UTC) : It's time to update my predictions, I'm now thinking 8-13 named storms, 2-5 'hurricanes, and '''0-2 '''major hurricanes. I've lowered my predictions slightly due to incoming El Nino, which could quiet down the Atlantic this year. On June 1 (the start of the season), I'll issue another forecast, and my final predictions will come during mid-season. Steve820 21:04, April 5, 2014 (UTC) : 9 ts might be 7 if a super El Niño develops 3 hurricanes at most and 1 single major or not like last year. If 2013 was a dissappointment this might be as well. I am becoming crazy with all these hurricane seasons.Allanjeffs 01:11, April 10, 2014 (UTC) Not sure this is bad or not.--Isaac829 23:46, April 15, 2014 (UTC) :They'll still be invests, just no more ATCF updates prior to advisory time. We'll have to wait for the advisory to actually come out. I don't know why the NHC is doing this. It's the media's problem, not there's. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'''ropical]] 02:05, April 16, 2014 (UTC) :I might say even though I hate this news I understand their case.Many people jump the gun including me sometimes when there is a renumber,So I believe they are trying to teach the media and bloggers to be more calm and not jump the gun.Allanjeffs 06:06, April 17, 2014 (UTC) The season is starting in 29 days! Can't wait to see what this year's Atlantic season will have in store! :) Steve820 20:56, May 3, 2014 (UTC) :15 more days! Steve820 20:07, May 17, 2014 (UTC) :Wow,I have been so busy with life I haven't been tracking these things, some recent findings have shocked me: the retirement of Ingrid suprised me. I was drinking tea while I read that NOW I NEED A NEW KEYBOARD :P (JK). On the other hand I'm not surprised by the retirement of Manuel. (I'm getting off topic, I should probably put this on last year's archive). Also, I think we might have another storm in May this year. I just have a feeling. :Another example of a surprise (late) discovery to me: Everything below me!leeboy100 (talk) 23:50, May 19, 2014 (UTC) ::As everyone cheers on Amanda in the EPAC, I would like to point out our first candidate for a tropical cyclone this year in the Atlantic. Per Jeff Masters, GFS forecasts the MJO to increase thunderstorm activity in the Western Caribbean on the week of June 1, prompting potential development around the Yucatan. However, this does '''not mean 2014 will be active in any way. Just take a look at inactive 1968, which had Abby and Candy develop in the same general region in June. AndrewTalk To Me 18:36, May 25, 2014 (UTC) :::The countdown continues... 6 more days until the season starts! Hopefully we'll see a storm in the western Caribbean during the week of June 1, that'll mark a very early start to the season. However, this season should be inactive due to El Nino. It's still not out of the question we could get a re-1992 though, in which we have a inactive season but there is one extremely destructive storm (remember Hurricane Andrew?). In fact, there's a tiny chance we could even get a re-Katrina this season, and that won't be good. That's why we need to be prepared every season, just in case a devastating disaster strikes New Orleans or something. Steve820 21:05, May 26, 2014 (UTC) :::4 days left... Steve820 23:59, May 28, 2014 (UTC) :::3 more days! Steve820 00:18, May 30, 2014 (UTC) :::2 days left!! :D Steve820 22:57, May 30, 2014 (UTC) :::less than 1 day left!!!!!! leeboy100 (talk) 17:24, May 31, 2014 (UTC) :::There's a cluster of storms in the Gulf of Mexico, probably won't develop, but it's close to where I live and could bring rain (which we don't need any more of) to my area :::leeboy100 (talk) 17:32, May 31, 2014 (UTC) :::::And the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season has officially begun (well, 1 hour, 18 minutes ago) in UTC. Might see that GoM invest the models were predicting develop into Arthur in about a week or so. Ryan1000 01:19, June 1, 2014 (UTC) :::::Hopefully we'll see an Arthur during the next week or so. I predict this season will be somewhat inactive to near-average because of that El Nino. My updated forecast for this season calls for 9-12 named storms, 2-5 hurricanes, and 1''' major hurricane. Anyway, happy hurricane season!! Woohoo! Let's celebrate the start of the season with a bang! Steve820 03:16, June 1, 2014 (UTC) The 2014 Atlantic hurricane season is now open!--Isaac829 04:02, June 1, 2014 (UTC) Re-analysis Not completely related to 2014, but some notable reanalysis for the Atlantic has now taken place. Camille of 1969 had 900 mbars at landfall, but winds were downed to 175 mph. Audrey of 1957 was actually a cat 3 at landfall in LA (120 mph), not a cat 4, and that also makes it 2nd to Alma of 1966 as the strongest June hurricane on record in the Atlantic, one of only two June major hurricanes (the first storm of 1945 was downgraded to a cat 2 in reanalysis), and she remains the strongest June landfall. Neither the 1945 or 1949 atlantic hurricane seasons had two cat 4 U.S. landfalls, as the hurricanes that hit Texas those years were downgraded to a cat 3 (1945) and 2 (1949) upon landfall. The 1947 Fort Lauterdale hurricane was not a cat 5 according to reanalysis, but instead a strong cat 4, same with Hurricane Dog of 1950, both of which were really 145 mph major hurricanes. Hurricane King of 1950 was upgraded to a 130 mph category 4 hurricane upon landfall in Miami, but Hurricanes Baker and Charlie of 1950 were revised to be cat 2's, not 3's, so 1950's former 8 major hurricane record is now down to 6, so 2005 and 1961 now hold a tied record of 7 major hurricanes. 1950 also had a lot of unnamed tropical storms that weren't discovered operationally, so their ACE/storm total is a lot lower than it once was. ''Ryan1000'' 16:11, April 2, 2014 (UTC) :Unusual discoveries. Ryan, one fact you missed was with the added storms, 1949's September ties with 2002, 2007, and 2010 for the most active one in terms of total storms. AndrewTalk To Me 11:57, April 4, 2014 (UTC) :::Forgot to post this before, but the link for those changes is a blog post from Dr Masters here. ''Ryan1000'' 09:20, May 23, 2014 (UTC) October The month has now started according to UTC. This is whilst the Atlantic continues to be really inactive, uninteresting, and ''boring''! Must be wind shear and dry air across the basin! Since the Atlantic is being like this and I know this might be getting annoying, but I'll use a hashtag for your entertainment. #OMGATLANTICJUSTPRODUCEFAYALREADY --Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 02:05, October 1, 2014 (UTC) : For the record, this season, with only 5 storms thus far, is at the slowest pace for an Atlantic season since 1986, which also had 5 storms at the end of September that year. According to the NHC's monthly tropical cyclone summary for September, the ACE value is only 43% of the 1981-2010 median. Not as terrible as last year ended up being, but still. The last time so few storms formed in September since the active era began was 1997, with Hurricane Erika being the only September storm that year. It's not impossible we could get 1 or two more storms in October/November this year, but with cold, dry air dominating much of the Atlantic, it'd take a miracle for us to get to at least 8 storms this year. ''Ryan1000'' 21:53, October 1, 2014 (UTC) AOI: Southwestern Caribbean AOI: Southwestern Caribbean We have something new down in the southwest Caribbean and it's a 10/20 AOI. I hope it becomes Fay but due to proximity to land it possibly won't become anything.--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 00:10, October 8, 2014 (UTC) : Yeah this thing is too close to Central America to develop. It'll probably just move over land and die tomorrow. ''Ryan1000'' 01:05, October 8, 2014 (UTC) ::: Or...on second thought, it'll be moving into the EPac and develop there. ''Ryan1000'' 20:49, October 8, 2014 (UTC) ::: Now in the EPac and 20/50. Any more comments should go here --Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 03:40, October 10, 2014 (UTC) 07L.FAY 99L.INVEST This is unusual, never seen this forum so dead. Anyway, 60% and expected become a subtropical storm.--Isaac829 00:37, October 10, 2014 (UTC) :That what happens when the Atlantic gets very inactive :P Anyways, this is an unusual storm, we could see a Subtropical Storm Fay from this. Subtropical storms in the Atlantic usually form very late and very early in the season instead of early October!--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 03:40, October 10, 2014 (UTC) ::Now at 90%, looks like Fay is finally on its way. --'''Dylan (Hurricane 99) 14:09, October 10, 2014 (UTC) Subtropical Depression Seven Just in from the NHC's Twitter, advisories will be initiated at 11. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 14:31, October 10, 2014 (UTC) : Yeah they said that on their website too. This'll probably become Fay, but don't expect it to become very strong as it heads north. I hope it becomes weak, that way my puns from before will be true. :D Ryan1000 14:37, October 10, 2014 (UTC) Subtropical Storm Fay It's now here. Sorry I haven't been on, usual busy-ness of life off of the wiki. Oh, and LOL Ryan XD I wasn't able to sign in because I pressed "enter" to put my sig down here, but I guess my computer thought "when he presses enter, that must mean he wants it published" (stupid computer) leeboy100My Talk! 21:27, October 10, 2014 (UTC) : Lol Ryan, I remember your "Fayl" and "Faylure" puns, which we can use if Fay fails. :D Anyways, we finally have Fay after waiting for a month! I expect it to peak in the strong TS category, and I hope it also becomes fully tropical. Hopefully it's not a "Fayl", I'm still a tad bit sick of Atlantic fails after last year's epic fail season that produced so much fails it completely got on our nerves. I'm just glad the Atlantic is producing stronger storms this year (expect for Dolly), and I'd like that streak to continue!--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 22:58, October 10, 2014 (UTC) ::50 kts/1000 mbar now and expected to become fully tropical soon. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 02:54, October 11, 2014 (UTC) ::::Although Fay is the only named storm in ATL now, 90L behind it is the one that is more likely to be a threat to land, as it heads into the upper Lesser Antilles in a few days. Ryan1000 05:13, October 11, 2014 (UTC) Tropical Storm Fay Now tropical with winds of 70 mph.--Isaac829 16:05, October 11, 2014 (UTC) :Sorry Ryan, but given how close Fay is to hurricane strength (I wouldn't be surprised if it debuts as a hurricane this year, just like Arthur and Cristobal), I can't quite say it's fayling. :/ --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 16:11, October 11, 2014 (UTC) :Come on Fay! Weaken so we can call you a fayl or a faylure :leeboy100My Talk! 17:55, October 11, 2014 (UTC) :::Oh well. Fay probably won't cause enough damage to Bermuda to be retired anyways, so...there's always 2020! Guess there's no faycepalms to be given this time though. Ryan1000 20:05, October 11, 2014 (UTC) ::::Hurricane watch and TS warning discontinued for Bermuda, but Fay is apparently very very close to hurricane status. From the latest NHC discussion: "The cloud pattern associated with Fay has become more symmetrical, and microwave data also reveal that the inner core structure is better than 12 hours ago, including the presence of a closed mid-level eye feature. I was tempted to classify the system as a hurricane, but the consensus of the Dvorak T-numbers still support an initial intensity of 60 kt. No significant change in strength is anticipated, but only a 5-kt increase in the winds will bring Fay to hurricane status." - Avila. Emphasis mine. Personally, if Fay won't be a faylure, I hope it becomes a hurricane. Oh, and an 82 mph wind gust was recorded in Bermuda a few hours ago. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 15:06, October 12, 2014 (UTC) :::::Looking at the NHC forecast track I wouldn't be surprised if Fay just peaks at 70 mph and fails to become a hurricane. It still seems to have a hurricane potential though since it's currently oh-so-close to reaching that status and it'll only have to strengthen 5 more mph to become a hurricane. C'mon Fay, become a hurricane, it's still possible for you! Looks like it's not the Fayl we all wanted it to be. If it's not upgraded to a hurricane before it dies out, there's a shot for it to be upgraded post-season.--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 17:07, October 12, 2014 (UTC) ::::::Yeah given the force of the gusts on Bermuda and the strength of the flight-level winds at times (there was a maximum of 79 kts measured last night), I wouldn't be surprised if Fay pulls a Nate '11/Karen '07/Cindy '05/Gaston '04/Erika '03 and is upgraded in post-analysis, though it could also pull a Beryl '12 and remain a high-end TS (remember, recon found 80-kt flight-level winds in Beryl, but the storm was never upgraded to a hurricane). --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 18:44, October 12, 2014 (UTC) :::::::I'll wait until the next advisory to make a header, but Fay is now a hurricane per ATCF: AL, 07, 2014101218, , BEST, 0, 343N, 619W, 65, 986, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 25, 25, 25, 1011, 240, 25, 80, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, FAY, D, 12, NEQ, 300, 240, 150, 180, Pretty impressive for an Atlantic storm that was originally forecast to peak at a measly 40 kts, eh? I guess Fay saw what Rachel pulled off and decided to take a stab at it :P --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 19:39, October 12, 2014 (UTC) ::::::: For the first time in History Fay is a hurricane yeahhhhh. Finally!!Allanjeffs 19:52, October 12, 2014 (UTC) 08L.GONZALO 90L.INVEST New guy well east of the Lessers, 10%/20% for the next two and five days, and forecast to become a 970 mbar Hurricane Gonzalo near the central Bahamas by the Euro 216 hours (9 days) out. That's a very long time but we'll see. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 14:22, October 10, 2014 (UTC) : I hope this becomes Gonzalo. This Atlantic basin seems to be entering another active phase after the 1-month break between Edouard and Fay we've had.--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 22:59, October 10, 2014 (UTC) ::: Now at 30% for 2 days and 60% for 5. It's expected to recurve before it reaches the U.S. East Coast, possibly threatening Bermuda as a hurricane, but before that, I expect this one to dump heavy rains over the upper Lesser Antilles westward to the Turks and Caicos over the next two to three days. Ryan1000 20:09, October 11, 2014 (UTC) ::::Jumped to 90%.--Isaac829 16:51, October 12, 2014 (UTC) :::::Lolwut, I didn't expect that jump. Looks like Gonzalo's coming probably later today! It seems like a potential threat to the Bahamas and maybe even the U.S. in the long run, stay tuned.--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 17:09, October 12, 2014 (UTC) Tropical Storm Gonzalo Special advisory issued. 35 kts/1009 mbar, TS watches and warnings up, expected to become a Category 2 hurricane by the end of the forecast period. With Fay still spinning northeast of Bermuda, this is the first time all season that we've had two cyclones active at the same time. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 17:54, October 12, 2014 (UTC) THIS.... IS.... SPARTA GONZALO!!!! Sandy the grease-y squirrel II? rarity is best pony 18:01, October 12, 2014 (UTC) Why is everything getting active now? It's October, not September. I don't know why I'm complaining, we're finally getting some activity leeboy100My Talk! 18:35, October 12, 2014 (UTC) 91L.INVEST AOI.Behind 90L This one is in the eastern Atlantic, 10% for 2 and 5 days. But don't expect it to become much, conditions for this one aren't favorable for development. Ryan1000 05:13, October 11, 2014 (UTC) 91L.INVEST Now invested, but the percent for development remains unchanged. Ryan1000 02:43, October 12, 2014 (UTC) : It just jumped off the TWO. What a fail of an invest.--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 17:10, October 12, 2014 (UTC) Retirements at a glance Even though we only have 2 named storms so far, we're already in August and I think it's about time we start this section with my retirement predictions: *Arthur: 5% - Early-season east coast hurricane but it barely caused much impacts. Because of this the name is likely to stay. *Bertha: 1% - Very impressive in that it strengthened to a hurricane even though it was so disorganized, but I doubt many impacts occurred in Lesser Antilles and retirement is very unlikely. *Cristobal: 5% - 7 fatalities could give it a tiny shot at retirement but I really don't think that would happen. Most likely he's coming back in 2020 *Dolly: 1% - 1 death in Mexico, but you know their retirement standards, it almost certainly won't be retired. *Edouard: 0% - First major since Sandy in 2012 but because of not affecting land, the name will pop back up in 2020. *Fay: ? - Still active (Last updated by --Steve820 |Chat With Me • • at 23:00, October 10, 2014 (UTC)) : Still seems a bit early in ATL for retirements...if we get something a little more notable, then I'll begin mine, but there's not much to say right now. Ryan1000 02:48, August 7, 2014 (UTC) Normally I'm against doing these with a season that's only two storms in, but I'm bored right now and this year's AHS has been moving at a snail's pace, so I'll post my predictions to pass the time :P *Arthur: 9% - Made for a boisterous start to the season, but fortunately wasn't too severe. *Bertha: 6% - Wasn't bad enough, though meteorologically interesting. *Cristobal: 7% - Some fatalities during its early stages, but nothing that will merit retirement. *Dolly: 2% - Even Barry was worse. *Edouard: 0% 1% - It was nice to see a major roam the Atlantic for a change, but the only impacts were felt by fish, so no. :*''Sigh...'' bumping to 1%, unfortunately Edouard killed 2 people in Maryland due to rip currents :( --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 18:18, August 18, 2014 (UTC) Oki doki Loki! *Arthur = 10% That aardvark was too nice. Next! *Bertha = 10% Only Alex Salmond would think that storm demolished everywhere. *Cristobal = 6% u wot m8 *Dolly = ?% Let's see what JOLENE is up to... “i liek turtlez 14:49, August 24, 2014 (UTC) Leeboy's epic retirement prediction (ATL) *Arthur-10% caused $13.9 million and 1 death, so it's staying *Bertha-1% caused 3 deaths *Christobal-killed 2 people due to rip currents *Dolly-0% 1 death but since it was in Mexico it's not going anywhere *Edouard-0% major that didn't affect land 2% Never mind, this beautiful hurricane caused two deaths :( *Fay-?% currently active *Gonzalo-?% currently active '' leeboy100My Talk! updated 18:38, October 12, 2014 (UTC) Well, I'm here, but as for actual retirement predictions thus far...I'm at a loss. Nothing is honestly worth retiring, I wouldn't be surprised if this is the first year since 2009 to feature no retired names in ATL. If I had to explain storm by storm... *Arthur - 10% - I didn't expect Arthur to be particularly destructive, but 14 million in damage and 1 death are very low numbers, especially for a cat 2. It seems NC has gotten a lot more prepared for hurricanes since the monsters that have hit them over the past two decades (Fran, Floyd, Isabel). 9% for the minor impacts, 1% personal respect for Arthur finally becoming a hurricane after 30 years (like Erick last year in the EPac). *Bertha - 2% - Another relatively minor storm. It killed a few people in the Lesser Antilles, but otherwise most of the effects were beneficial, knowing they were in a drought at the time. *Cristobal - 5% - 7 deaths across the upper lessers in the early stage of its life, but damage was very limited and it's coming back again in 2019. *Dolly - 3% - Minor flooding in Mexico, but it wasn't anything compared to the barrage of storms they had last year. *Edouard - 2% - Caused two deaths from Maryland due to strong rip currents and surf, but caused no damage on land. *Fay - 2% - Soaked Bermuda as a strong TS, but overall impacts weren't too severe. Guess I'll have to save the *faycepalm* joke for 2020. All in all, every storm thus far is worthy of some sort of percent, but nothing is actually getting retired, unless we get a notable storm in the Caribbean in October. 'Ryan1000' 21:33, September 28, 2014 (UTC) There's nothing worth retiring so far, so... *All - 0% --Isaac829 21:37, September 28, 2014 (UTC) Post-season changes Well. I would have expected the NHC to have more than just one TCR completed for this year's AHS given the low activity, but I guess a busy EPAC season has been keeping them preoccupied. Anyway, we finally have an Atlantic TCR, and it's for Tropical Depression Two. No significant changes reported. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 20:50, October 3, 2014 (UTC) : I guess...we have 5 storms left in ATL for them to complete. Like I said before on the EPac post-season section, If we don't get anything for the next 10 days, I'll bend the December 1st rule again this year and open the TCR betting pool around the 15th of October. We'll probably have all of the Atlantic TCR's finished before December this year. Though the EPac will take a while to complete. 'Ryan1000''' 12:35, October 4, 2014 (UTC)